Ordinary financing statement, financing of expenditure
An ordinary financing deficit of 1.1 billion is expected for 2021. There are several reasons for this relatively good result. When the budget planning commenced in February 2020, a structural surplus of 1.1 billion was expected. This did not yet include the additional profit distribution of 0.7 billion by the SNB. Finally, the suspension of interest on arrears, in particular, means that some of the receipts due in 2020 will be pushed out to subsequent years (2.4 bn). Conversely, the budget will be burdened by further expenditure of 1.6 billion to combat the COVID-19 crisis; further measures are foreseeable.
In 2021, receipts will reach roughly the level of the 2020 budget, but they will remain significantly lower in 2020 due to the COVID‑19 pandemic. Based on the estimate for 2020 (70.4 bn), receipts will rise by 7.6% in 2021, which is greater than the expected nominal economic growth rate of 5.1%. This is due to the aforementioned shift of receipts to 2021. Federal expenditure will increase by 2.0%. The debt brake requirements will be met. Economic output will remain well below its long-term trend in 2021. Consequently, the debt brake will permit a high cyclical deficit of almost 3.3 billion. The budgeted expenditure is thus 2.2 billion lower than the maximum permissible expenditure, resulting in a corresponding structural surplus. In order to finance the measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Confederation is using existing liquid assets and increasing its debt. Current estimates are indicating that gross debt will rise to 105.6 billion (+8.7 bn) in 2020. Net debt will be up by 21.0 billion, as there will be a reduction of 12.3 billion in non-administrative assets on top of the increase in debt (+8.7 bn).
Last modification 27.08.2020