in CHF bn
The federal budget from a debt brake viewpoint
in CHF bn
Despite high growth rates, the Swiss economy is unlikely to reach its potential output in 2022. Following the severe economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, economic output will thus remain slightly below its long-term trend in 2022 and subsequent years.
The ordinary fiscal balance is neutral in the 2022 budget. However, a deficit of 0.6 billion would be permissible in cyclical terms. As in previous years, this structural leeway will be used to offset the shortfall in the amortization account. The amortization account provides the debt brake control statistics for the extraordinary budget. The extraordinary expenditure to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic caused the statistics to move into negative territory at the end of 2020 (-9.8 bn). The shortfall is likely to rise to 25 billion by 2022, according to current estimates. The Federal Council intends to partially offset this shortfall by recognizing a maximum of 1.3 billion of supplementary distributions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) as extraordinary receipts from 2021.
The ordinary budget is more or less balanced in the financial plan years of 2023 to 2025 as well, while the cyclically permissible financing deficits are set to fall. As things currently stand, the debt brake requirements will be missed by a narrow margin in 2024. However, the anticipated structural financing deficit is small (-85 mn).
Last modification 12.08.2021