Economic situation

Development of economic output

Real and nominal GDP rates of change (in %, adjusted for calendar effects and sporting events)

Sources:
2018–2022: State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO)
2023–2024: Estimates of economic forecasts expert group of June 15, 2023
2025–2027: Forecasts according to the dispatch on the 2024 budget with integrated task and financial plan for 2025 to 2027 of August 23, 2023

 

The 2024 budget is based on the economic forecasts of the federal government's expert group dated June 15, 2023. Against the backdrop of high inflation rates around the world, international monetary policy is expected to remain restrictive in 2023, which will restrain global demand. Weak global demand and rising interest rates will in turn curb investing activity in Switzerland. By contrast, private consumer spending is likely to remain on an upward trend for the time being, bolstered by the strong labor market. Real economic growth, adjusted for sporting events, is expected to be below average at 1.1% in 2023. A recovery is likely to take hold in 2024, and economic growth of 1.5% is anticipated.

Inflation cooled off internationally through to mid-2023 on the back of falling energy prices. However, core inflation declined only slightly. In Switzerland, too, inflation eased as a result of lower energy prices, but it increased in the case of services. An inflation rate of 2.3% is anticipated for 2023 in Switzerland. In 2024, inflation is likely to fall back below 2% to 1.5%, thereby putting it within the SNB's target range for price stability. Nominal GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2023 and 3.0% in 2024.

To achieve price stability, short-term interest rates are likely to remain high or rise further (2023: 1.5%; 2024: 1.9%), as are those for ten-year Confederation bonds (2023: 1.2%; 2024: 1.3%).

The economic slowdown is also likely to have a delayed impact on the labor market. Unemployment is expected to come in at 2.0% in 2023, followed by 2.3% in 2024.

The risks to economic growth are significant. Inflation could prove more persistent internationally and require tighter monetary policy, which would further curb global demand. Finally, there is still the risk of an energy shortage in the coming winter of 2023/2024.

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Last modification 21.08.2023

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