13.08.2025
The Federal Council was informed about the current extrapolation on August 13, 2025. According to this first extrapolation, the Confederation is anticipating a financing deficit of CHF 200 million for this year. A deficit of CHF 800 million had been budgeted. The improvement can be explained primarily by much higher tax receipts.
Based on the figures up to the end of June, the Confederation expects a financing deficit of CHF 200 million for 2025. A deficit of CHF 800 million had been budgeted.
Instead of the anticipated deficit of CHF 500 million, the ordinary budget is likely to have a financing surplus of CHF 700 million. This significant improvement is largely due to the upward revision of the estimate for receipts (+1.4 bn). By contrast, ordinary expenditure is set to exceed the budgeted amount by CHF 200 million. The positive development on the receipt side is already taken into account in the key parameters for the 2026 budget and the financial plan for 2027 to 2029, as approved by the Federal Council on June 25, 2025. This does not change the fact that deficits running into the billions would be likely in the financial plan years without the implementation of relief package 27.
The deficit in the extraordinary budget is larger than budgeted, due mainly to the extraordinary capital contribution for the financial stabilization of SBB (850 mn). This was budgeted for 2024, but the expenditure was not incurred until after the referendum period expired in 2025.
CHF bn* |
Bdg. 2025 |
Extrapol. June |
Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
Ordinary receipts |
85.3 |
86.8 |
+1.4 |
Ordinary expenditure |
85.8 |
86.0 |
+0.2 |
Ordinary fiscal balance |
-0.5 |
+0.7 |
+1.2 |
Extraordinary receipts |
0.4 |
0.6 |
+0.2 |
Extraordinary expenditure |
0.7 |
1.6 |
+0.9 |
Overall fiscal balance |
-0.8 |
-0.2 |
+0.6 |
Ordinary budget: much higher tax receipts expected
The estimate for receipts has been revised upward by CHF 1.4 billion. This is due primarily to the fact that additional receipts of CHF 1.5 billion are anticipated in the case of direct federal tax. Direct federal tax receipts exceeded expectations in 2024, leading to a higher estimate for 2025. The development of receipts in the first few months of 2025 has confirmed this trend. In terms of profit tax, this rise in receipts is driven to a large extent by additional receipts from the canton of Geneva for the 2022 and 2023 tax years, especially from energy and commodity trading companies (approximately 900 mn is expected for 2025). This is a temporary phenomenon that is attributable to higher commodity prices. Information on this was previously provided as part of the fiscal policy assessment for 2026 (see press release dated February 12, 2025), and the trend has since been confirmed. However, value added tax receipts are likely to be CHF 200 million lower than budgeted. This is associated mainly with the downward revision of the nominal economic growth expected in 2025.
On the expenditure side, compared with the budget, additional expenditure totaling CHF 200 million is anticipated. For the first time since the debt brake was introduced, ordinary expenditure could thus exceed the budgeted amount (by around 200 mn). This is because it is estimated that the credit increases during the year (+2.1 bn) are likely to exceed the relief provided by unspent budgetary credits (unutilized credits; -1.9 bn). The largest supplementary credit relates to Switzerland's participation in the EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (e.g. Horizon Europe) and was approved with addendum I to the budget (+666 mn). The largest unutilized credits are expected in the area of interest payable (-326 mn), owing to falling interest rates.
Extraordinary expenditure for 2025 higher than budgeted
At CHF 1.6 billion, extraordinary expenditure is likely to be higher than budgeted (+850 mn). As already mentioned, this is linked to the one-time capital contribution for the financial stabilization of SBB (850 mn).
Extraordinary receipts are expected to be higher than budgeted (+200 mn). This improvement is due to the supplementary profit distribution by the SNB (333 mn out of a total of 1.0 bn).
US tariffs to affect the federal budget with a lag
The high US tariffs are not expected to have any major repercussions for the federal finances this year. It is currently uncertain how the Swiss economy will adapt to this new situation. Depending on this, the tariffs are likely to impact short-time working expenditure and VAT from 2026 onward. Further effects on receipts are to be expected with a longer lag.
Classification of the extrapolation The Parliament Act stipulates that the Federal Council shall arrange for projections on the expected annual result to be issued as of June 30 and September 30 and shall notify Parliament thereof. The extrapolation is an estimate and thus has to be interpreted with caution. |
Last modification 13.08.2025