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Published on 2 December 2025

Special evaluations

These evaluations provide in-depth analyses of selected fiscal policy topics.

Structural Deficits and Fiscal Impulses in Switzerland

Forecasts based on the GFS data indicate a slightly positive fiscal impulse in 2025, rising in 2026 due to strong expenditure growth and slowing revenue. From 2027 onward, forecasted fiscal surpluses - mainly due to expenditure restraint under the relief package 27 - are anticipated to result in a neutral impulse in 2027 and 2028. In contrast, 2029 shows a positive fiscal impulse. These results are highly sensitive to assumptions, including Relief Package 27, SNB distributions and financing of the 13th AHV payment. The FS model provides a broadly similar outlook from 2024 onward. Local governments remain the only subsector with a structural deficit over the entire forecast horizon.