Economic situation
Federal finances are highly dependent on the economic cycle. How is the economic growth forecast looking, how high is expected inflation and what does that mean for the interest rate structure?
Development of economic output
Real and nominal GDP rates of change (in %, adjusted for sporting events and calendar effects)
Real economic growth, adjusted for major sporting events, is expected to remain below average at 1.3% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. The high level of uncertainty surrounding international economic and trade policy is adversely affecting the outlook for both the global economy and the Swiss economy. It is hampering foreign demand and those sectors of the export economy exposed to the economic climate, while at the same time tempering investment. Conversely, domestic demand should act as a stabilizer, as low interest rates will encourage investment in construction and low inflation will support private consumption.
Inflation is expected to be 0.1% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026. The appreciation of the Swiss franc, falling energy prices and lower prices for flights and package holidays will have a moderating effect on inflation. As a result, inflation is set to rise slightly again in 2026. Factoring in inflation, nominal GDP is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026.
In the current environment, the risks of a slowdown are greater than the probability of a recovery. The 2026 budget is based on the economic forecasts of June 2025 provided by the federal government's expert group. These forecasts are based in particular on the assumption that international tariffs will remain at their June 2025 level, and that there will be no escalation in the trade dispute with the United States. Given the high degree of uncertainty, SECO has published a negative and a positive economic scenario. What impact would these alternative scenarios have on the federal budget? The simulations show that the effects on the 2026 budget would be minor overall. The debt brake requirements could still be met.
Data
Detailed data for longer periods are available under the following links: