Development of economic output

Federal finances are highly dependent on the economic cycle. How is the economic growth forecast looking, how high is expected inflation and what does that mean for the interest rate structure?

Real and nominal GDP rates of change (in %, adjusted for sporting events and calendar effects)

Following below-average real economic growth in 2026 (0.9%), Swiss economic growth is expected to pick up to 1.6% in 2027. Inflation is expected to remain stable at 0.6% in 2026 and 2027. Consequently, nominal economic growth – which is important for the development of receipts – is also expected to rise from 1.7% (2026) to 2.1% (2027).

The 2027 budget is based on the economic forecasts of the federal government's expert group from June 2026, while the medium-term assumptions for the years 2028 through 2030 are based on the medium-term forecasts of the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). According to the medium-term forecasts, economic growth is returning to its long-term trend (2028–2030: 2.0%; 1.9%; 1.8%), and the inflation rate stands at 1%.

Data

Detailed data for longer periods are available under the following links:

• data portal
• Open Government Data