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First extrapolation for 2024

14.08.2024

The Federal Council was informed about the current extrapolation on August 14, 2024. According to the first extrapolation, the Confederation is anticipating a financing deficit of CHF 1.6 billion for this year. A deficit of CHF 2.6 billion had been budgeted. The improved figures are mainly due to the fact that the one-time extraordinary capital contribution to SBB, amounting to CHF 1.15 billion, has been deferred until 2025. In the ordinary budget, deviations from the budget remain minor.

Based on the figures up to the end of June, the Confederation is expecting a financing deficit of CHF 1.6 billion for 2024, versus a budgeted shortfall of CHF 2.6 billion. In the ordinary budget, the budget deviations roughly offset each other overall. An ordinary financing deficit of CHF 0.4 billion is anticipated (budget: -0.5 bn).

Table: Extrapolation as of June 30, 2024

*Any discrepancies in the totals are due to rounding.
Bdg. = budget, extrapol. = extrapolation

Ordinary budget: lower receipts offset by lower expenditure

Both ordinary receipts and ordinary expenditure are likely to come in below budget (-0.6 bn and -0.7 bn, respectively). On the receipts side, there was once again no profit distribution from the SNB (-0.7 bn). Moreover, there were lower receipts from VAT among other things, owing to nominal economic growth being lower (-0.3 bn) than projected in the budget. Conversely, the estimate for direct federal tax receipts was revised substantially upward (+0.7 bn). This correction was due to the extremely good 2023 financial results for corporate profit tax, a positive development which has continued into this year. Income tax receipts also increased markedly in the first half of 2024.

On the expenditure side, an overall decline of CHF 0.7 billion is anticipated. The relief provided by unspent budgetary credits (unutilized credits) is estimated to be higher than the credit increases during the year. The largest unutilized credits were reported for interest payable as a result of lower interest rates (-233 mn), expenditure for integration measures for foreign nationals (-118 mn) and the VAT percentage for AHV (-63 mn). Overall, unutilized credits are estimated to be CHF 2.3 billion, or 2.8% of budgetary credits. This is lower than the average level for the past ten years (3.2%). Additional requirements for supplementary credits and credit overruns are expected to amount to CHF 1.6 billion.

Extraordinary expenditure for 2024 lower than budgeted

Extraordinary expenditure is estimated to be significantly lower, at CHF 1.4 billion (budget: 2.4 bn). The capital contribution for the financial stabilization of SBB (budget: 1.15 bn) is not expected until 2025, as more time is needed for the parliamentary debate. If Parliament approves the capital contribution, there will be a credit transfer from 2024 to 2025, and the amount will be paid out after the referendum deadline expires. By contrast, at CHF 1.4 billion, expenditure for people from Ukraine seeking protection is likely to be higher (budget: 1.2 bn), because it is anticipated that the annual average number of people seeking protection in Switzerland will be higher than assumed in the budget (June estimate: 68,000; budget: 50,000).

Expected extraordinary receipts are in line with the budgeted figure, at CHF 0.2 billion. They stem mainly from the gradual sale of RUAG International Holding AG (150 mn).

Classification of the extrapolation

The Parliament Act stipulates that the Federal Council shall arrange for projections on the expected annual result to be issued as of June 30 and September 30 and shall notify Parliament thereof. The extrapolation is an estimate and thus has to be interpreted with caution.

Last modification 14.08.2024

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